Anders Bryn
Forsker
(+47) 930 39 782
anders.bryn@nibio.no
Sted
Ås - Bygg O43
Besøksadresse
Oluf Thesens vei 43, 1433 Ås (Varelevering: Elizabeth Stephansens vei 21)
Biografi
Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
During recent decades, forests have expanded into new areas throughout the whole of Norway. The processes explained as causing the forest expansion have focused mainly on climate or land use changes. To enable a spatially explicit separation of the effects following these two main drivers behind forest expansion, the authors set out to model the potential for natural forest regeneration following land use abandonment, given the present climatic conditions. The present forest distribution, a number of high-resolution land cover maps, and GIS methods were used to model the potential for natural forest regeneration. Furthermore, the results were tested with independent local models, explanatory variables and predictive modelling. The modelling results show that land use abandonment, in a long-term perspective, has the climatic and edaphic potential to cause natural forest regeneration of 48,800 km2, or 15.9% of mainland Norway. The future natural forest regeneration following land use change or abandonment can now be spatially separated from the effects of climate changes. The different independent model tests support the main findings, but small fractions of the modelled potential natural forest regeneration will probably be caused by other processes than land use abandonment.
Forfattere
Lawrence R. Kirkendall Daniel Flø Martin Malmstrøm Anders Nielsen Gaute Velle Paul Ragnar Berg Anders Bryn Kjetil Hindar Johanna Järnegren Kyrre Kausrud Erlend Birkeland Nilsen Brett Kevin Sandercock Eva Bonsak ThorstadSammendrag
VKM has assessed the potential risk to Norwegian biodiversity associated with the import of the Turkestan cockroach, Periplaneta lateralis, as live food for hobby animals. Populations of the cockroach are nearly always found in or near buildings, and non-native populations have never been observed in natural environments. No previous observations of P. lateralis have been reported for Norway and it is very unlikely the species will be able to establish and spread into Norwegian nature due to the low winter temperatures and short summers. Furthermore, VKM find that there is low risk associated with the potential effects on biodiversity, if it against all odds, were to establish in Norway. Therefore, VKM concludes that there is low risk associated with import and keeping of P. lateralis in relation to its potential negative effect on Norwegian biodiversity
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Forfattere
Anders Bryn Rune Halvorsen Peter Horvath Lasse Torben Keetz Ida Marielle Mienna Trond Simensen Olav Skarpaas Ingrid Vesterdal Tjessem Joachim Paul Töpper Vigdis Vandvik Liv Guri Velle Catharina Caspara VloonSammendrag
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