Ryan Bright
Senior Research Scientist
Biography
Abstract
Parametric modeling of downwelling longwave irradiance under all-sky conditions (LW↓) typically involves “correcting” a clear- (or non-overcast) sky model estimate using solar-irradiance-based proxies of cloud cover in lieu of actual cloud cover given uncertainties and measurement challenges of the latter. While such approaches are deemed sound, their application in time and space is inherently limited. We report on a correction model free of solar irradiance-derived cloud proxies that is applicable at the true daily (24 hr) and global scales. The new “cloud-free” correction model demonstrates superior performance in a range of environments relative to existing cloud-free modeling approaches and to corrections based on solar-derived cloudiness proxies. Literature-based performance benchmarking indicates a performance that is often comparable to—and in some cases superior to—performances yielded by conventional parametric modeling approaches employing locally or regionally calibrated parameters, as well as to performances of satellite-based algorithms.
Authors
Ryan BrightAbstract
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Using decades of satellite observations, Finnish and Norwegian scientists calculated the warming effect caused by changes in the snow and ice cover of the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
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Heat Field Deformation (HFD) is a widely used method to measure sap flow of trees based on empirical relationships between heat transfer within tree stems and the sap flow rates. As an alternative, the Linear Heat Balance (LHB) method implements the same instrumental configuration as HFD but calculates the sap flow rates using analytical equations that are derived from fundamental conduction-convection heat transfer theories. In this study, we systematically compared the sap flow calculated using the two methods based on data that were recorded using the same instrument. The measurements were conducted on four Norway spruce trees. We aimed to evaluate the discrepancies between the sap flow estimates from the two methods and determine the underlying causes. Diurnal and day-to-day patterns were consistent between the sap flow estimates from the two methods. However, the magnitudes of the estimated sap flow were different between them, where LHB resulted in much lower estimates in three trees and slightly higher estimates in one compared to HFD. We also observed larger discrepancies in negative (reversed flow) than in positive sap flow, where the LHB resulted in lower reversed flow than HFD. Consequently, the seasonal budget estimated by LHB can be as low as ∼20% of that estimated by HFD. The discrepancies can be mainly attributed to the low wood thermal conductivities for the studied trees that lead to substantial underestimations using the LHB method. In addition, the sap flow estimates were very sensitive to the value changes of the empirical parameters in the calculations and, thus, using a proper case-specific value is recommended, especially for the LHB method. Overall, we suggest that, despite the strong theoretical support, the correctness of LHB outputs depends largely on the tree individuals and should be carefully evaluated.
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As a way to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), Heat Field Deformation (HFD) is a widely used method to measure sap flow of trees based on empirical relationships between heat transfer within tree stems and the sap flow rates. As an alternative, the Linear Heat Balance (LHB) method implements the same instrumental configuration as HFD but calculates the sap flow rates using analytical equations that are derived from fundamental conduction-convection heat transfer equations.
Abstract
Transpiration makes up the bulk of total evaporation in forested environments yet remains challenging to predict at landscape-to-global scales. We harnessed independent estimates of daily transpiration derived from co-located sap flow and eddy-covariance measurement systems and applied the triple collocation technique to evaluate predictions from big leaf models requiring no calibration. In total, four models in 608 unique configurations were evaluated at 21 forested sites spanning a wide diversity of biophysical attributes and environmental backgrounds. We found that simpler models that neither explicitly represented aerodynamic forcing nor canopy conductance achieved higher accuracy and signal-to-noise levels when optimally configured (rRMSE = 20%; R2 = 0.89). Irrespective of model type, optimal configurations were those making use of key plant functional type dependent parameters, daily LAI, and constraints based on atmospheric moisture demand over soil moisture supply. Our findings have implications for more informed water resource management based on hydrological modeling and remote sensing.
Abstract
Forest harvest residue is a low-competitive biomass feedstock that is usually left to decay on site after forestry operations. Its removal and pyrolytic conversion to biochar is seen as an opportunity to reduce terrestrial CO2 emissions and mitigate climate change. The mitigation effect of biochar is, however, ultimately dependent on the availability of the biomass feedstock, thus CO2 removal of biochar needs to be assessed in relation to the capacity to supply biochar systems with biomass feedstocks over prolonged time scales, relevant for climate mitigation. In the present study we used an assembly of empirical models to forecast the effects of harvest residue removal on soil C storage and the technical capacity of biochar to mitigate national-scale emissions over the century, using Norway as a case study for boreal conditions. We estimate the mitigation potential to vary between 0.41 and 0.78 Tg CO2 equivalents yr−1, of which 79% could be attributed to increased soil C stock, and 21% to the coproduction of bioenergy. These values correspond to 9–17% of the emissions of the Norwegian agricultural sector and to 0.8–1.5% of the total national emission. This illustrates that deployment of biochar from forest harvest residues in countries with a large forestry sector, relative to economy and population size, is likely to have a relatively small contribution to national emission reduction targets but may have a large effect on agricultural emission and commitments. Strategies for biochar deployment need to consider that biochar's mitigation effect is limited by the feedstock supply which needs to be critically assessed.
Abstract
Management of Earth’s surface albedo is increasingly viewed as an important climate change mitigation strategy both on (Seneviratne et al., 2018) and off (Field et al., 2018; Kravitz et al., 2018) the land. Assessing the impact of a surface albedo change involves employing a measure like radiative forcing (RF) which can be challenging to digest for decision-makers who deal in the currency of CO2- equivalent emissions. As a result, many researchers express albedo change (1α) RFs in terms of their CO2-equivalent effects, despite the lack of a standard method for doing so, such as there is for emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; e.g., IPCC AR5, Myhre et al., 2013). A major challenge for converting 1α RFs into their CO2-equivalent effects in a manner consistent with current IPCC emission metric approaches stems from the lack of a universal time dependency following the perturbation (perturbation “lifetime”). Here, we review existing methodologies based on the RF concept with the goal of highlighting the context(s) in which the resulting CO2-equivalent metrics may or may not have merit. To our knowledge this is the first review dedicated entirely to the topic since the first CO2-eq. metric for 1α surfaced 20 years ago. We find that, although there are some methods that sufficiently address the time-dependency issue, none address or sufficiently account for the spatial disparity between the climate response to CO2 emissions and 1α – a major critique of 1α metrics based on the RF concept (Jones et al., 2013). We conclude that considerable research efforts are needed to build consensus surrounding the RF “efficacy” of various surface forcing types associated with 1α (e.g., crop change, forest harvest), and the degree to which these are sensitive to the spatial pattern, extent, and magnitude of the underlying surface forcings.
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The decline of the Arctic cryosphere during recent decades has lowered the region’s surface albedo, reducing its ability to reflect solar radiation back to space. It is not clear what role the Antarctic cryosphere plays in this regard, but new remote-sensing-based techniques and datasets have recently opened the possibility to investigate its role. Here, we leverage these to show that the surface albedo reductions from sustained post-2000 losses in Arctic snow and ice cover equate to increasingly positive snow and ice albedo feedback relative to a 1982–1991 baseline period, with a decadal trend of +0.08 ± 0.04 W m–2 decade–1 between 1992 and 2015. During the same period, the expansion of the Antarctic sea-ice pack generated a negative feedback, with a decadal trend of −0.06 ± 0.02 W m–2 decade–1. However, substantial Antarctic sea-ice losses during 2016–2018 completely reversed the trend, increasing the three-year mean combined Arctic and Antarctic snow and ice albedo feedback to +0.26 ± 0.15 W m–2. This reversal highlights the importance of Antarctic sea-ice loss to the global snow and ice albedo feedback. The 1992–2018 mean feedback is equivalent to approximately 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the same period; the share may rise markedly should 2016–2018 snow and ice conditions become common, although increasing long-wave emissions will probably mediate the impact on the total radiative-energy budget.
Authors
L. Genesio Ryan Bright G. Alberti A. Peressotti G. Delle Vedove G. Incerti P. Toscano M. Rinaldi O. Muller F. MigliettaAbstract
Sunlight absorbed at the Earth’s surface is re-emitted as longwave radiation. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases trap an increasing fraction of such heat, leading to global climate change. Here we show that when a chlorophyll (Chl)-deficient soybean mutant is grown in the field, the fraction of solar-irradiance which is reflected, rather than absorbed, is consistently higher than in commercial varieties. But, while the effect on radiative forcing during the crop cycle at the scale of the individual experimental plot was found to be large (−4.1± 0.6 W m−2 ), global substitution of the current varieties with this genotype would cause a small increase in global surface albedo, resulting in a global shortwave radiative forcing of −0.003 W m−2 , corresponding to 4.4 Gt CO2eq. At present, this offsetting effect would come at the expense of reductions to yields, probably associated with different dynamic of photosynthetic response in the Chl-deficient mutant. The idea of reducing surface-driven radiative forcing by means of Chl-deficient crops therefore requires that novel high-yielding and high-albedo crops are made available soon.
Authors
Ryan BrightAbstract
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Forest structural properties largely govern surface fluxes of moisture, energy, and momentum that strongly affect regional climate and hydrology. Forest structural properties are greatly shaped by forest management activities, especially in the Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland). Insight into transient developments in forest structure in response to management intervention is therefore essential to understanding the role of forest management in mitigating regional climate change. The aim of this study is to present a simple grid-based framework – the Fennoscandic Forest State Simulator (F2S2) -- for predicting time-dependent forest structural trajectories in a manner compatible with land models employed in offline or asynchronously coupled climate and hydrological research. F2S2 enables the prescription of future regional forest structure as a function of: i) exogenously defined scenarios of forest harvest intensity; ii) forest management intensity; iii) climate forcing. We demonstrate its application when applied as a stand-alone tool for forecasting three alternative future forest states in Norway that differ with respect to background climate forcing, forest harvest intensity (linked to two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)), and forest management intensity. F2S2 captures impacts of climate forcing and forest management on general trends in forest structural development over time, and while climate is the main driver of longer-term forest structural dynamics, the role of harvests and other management-driven effects cannot be overlooked. To our knowledge this is the first paper presenting a method to map forest structure in space and time in a way that is compatible with land surface or hydrological models employing sub-grid tiling.
Abstract
As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (Picea abies (L) H. Karst) on lands in various states of natural transition to a forest dominated by deciduous broadleaved tree species. Given the aspiration to bring emissions on balance with removals in the latter half of the 21st century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, the effectiveness of such a policy is unclear given relatively low spruce growth rates in the region. Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counteract the benefits of an enhanced forest CO2 sink in high-latitude regions. Here, we carry out a rigorous empirically based assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale spruce planting in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21st century and beyond. We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting tCDR, yet given low forest growth rates in the region, notable tCDR benefits from such projects would not be realized until the second half of the 21st century, with maximum benefits occurring even later around 2150. We estimate Norway's total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (±240) and 852 (±295) Mt CO2-eq. at mean net present values of US$ 12 (±3) and US$ 13 (±2) per ton CDR, respectively. For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway's total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO2-eq. emissions.
Abstract
In a climate model, surface energy and water fluxes of the vegetated ecosystem largely depend on important structural attributes like leaf area index and canopy height. For forests, management can greatly alter these attributes with resulting consequences for the surface albedo, surface roughness, and evapotranspiration. The sensitivity of surface energy and water budgets to alterations in forest structure is relatively unknown in boreal regions, particularly in Nordic Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), where the forest management footprint is large. Here we perform offline simulations to quantify the sensitivity of surface heat and moisture fluxes to changes in forest composition and structure across daily, seasonal, and annual time scales. For the region on average, it is found that broadleaved deciduous forests cool the surface by 0.16 K annually and 0.3 K in the growing season owed to higher year‐round albedo and lower Bowen ratio, yet in some locations the local cooling can be as much as 2.4 K and 3.0 K, respectively. Moreover, fully developed forests cool the surface by 0.04 K annually in our domain owed to higher evapotranspiration, reaching up to 0.4 K locally in some locations, whereas undeveloped forests warm annually by 0.14 K owed to much lower evapotranspiration reaching up to 0.8 K for some locations. If regional forests are ever to be managed for the local climate regulation services that they provide, our results are an important first step illuminating the potential adverse impacts or benefits across space and time.
Authors
O. Janne Kjønaas Teresa Gómez de la Bárcena Ryan Bright Mette Hansen Gro Hylen Håvard Kauserud Sunil Mundra Jørn-Frode Nordbakken Tonje Ingeborg Økland Carlo AallAbstract
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Surface albedo is an important physical attribute of the climate system and satellite retrievals are useful for understanding how it varies in time and space. Surface albedo is sensitive to land cover and structure, which can vary considerably within the area comprising the effective spatial resolution of the satellite-based retrieval. This is particularly true for MODIS products and for topographically complex regions, such as Norway, which makes it difficult to separate the environmental drivers (e.g., temperature and snow) from those related to land cover and vegetation structure. In the present study, we employ high resolution datasets of Norwegian land cover and structure to spectrally unmix MODIS surface albedo retrievals (MCD43A3 v6) to study how surface albedo varies with land cover and structure. Such insights are useful for constraining land cover-dependent albedo parameterizations in models employed for regional climate or hydrological research and for developing new empirical models. At the scale of individual land cover types, we found that the monthly surface albedo can be predicted at a high accuracy when given additional information about forest structure, snow cover, and near surface air temperature. Such predictions can provide useful empirical benchmarks for climate model predictions made at the land cover level, which is critical for instilling greater confidence in the albedo-related climate impacts of anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC).
Authors
Kaiguang Zhao Michael A. Wulder Tongxi Hu Ryan Bright Qiusheng Wu Haiming Qin Yang Li Elizabeth Toman Bani Mallick Xuesong Zhang Molly BrownAbstract
Satellite time-series data are bolstering global change research, but their use to elucidate land changes and vegetation dynamics is sensitive to algorithmic choices. Different algorithms often give inconsistent or sometimes conflicting interpretations of the same data. This lack of consensus has adverse implications and can be mitigated via ensemble modeling, an algorithmic paradigm that combines many competing models rather than choosing only a single “best” model. Here we report one such time-series decomposition algorithm for deriving nonlinear ecosystem dynamics across multiple timescales—A Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change, and Trend (BEAST). As an ensemble algorithm, BEAST quantifies the relative usefulness of individual decomposition models, leveraging all the models via Bayesian model averaging. We tested it upon simulated, Landsat, and MODIS data. BEAST detected changepoints, seasonality, and trends in the data reliably; it derived realistic nonlinear trends and credible uncertainty measures (e.g., occurrence probability of changepoints over time)—some information difficult to derive by conventional single-best-model algorithms but critical for interpretation of ecosystem dynamics and detection of low-magnitude disturbances. The combination of many models enabled BEAST to alleviate model misspecification, address algorithmic uncertainty, and reduce overfitting. BEAST is generically applicable to time-series data of all kinds. It offers a new analytical option for robust changepoint detection and nonlinear trend analysis and will help exploit environmental time-series data for probing patterns and drivers of ecosystem dynamics.
Abstract
Due to the potential for land-use–land-cover change (LULCC) to alter surface albedo, there is need within the LULCC science community for simple and transparent tools for predicting radiative forcings (ΔF) from surface albedo changes (Δαs). To that end, the radiative kernel technique – developed by the climate modeling community to diagnose internal feedbacks within general circulation models (GCMs) – has been adopted by the LULCC science community as a tool to perform offline ΔF calculations for Δαs. However, the codes and data behind the GCM kernels are not readily transparent, and the climatologies of the atmospheric state variables used to derive them vary widely both in time period and duration. Observation-based kernels offer an attractive alternative to GCM-based kernels and could be updated annually at relatively low costs. Here, we present a radiative kernel for surface albedo change founded on a novel, simplified parameterization of shortwave radiative transfer driven with inputs from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balance and Filled (EBAF) products. When constructed on a 16-year climatology (2001–2016), we find that the CERES-based albedo change kernel – or CACK – agrees remarkably well with the mean kernel of four GCMs (rRMSE = 14 %). When the novel parameterization underlying CACK is applied to emulate two of the GCM kernels using their own boundary fluxes as input, we find even greater agreement (mean rRMSE = 7.4 %), suggesting that this simple and transparent parameterization represents a credible candidate for a satellite-based alternative to GCM kernels. We document and compute the various sources of uncertainty underlying CACK and include them as part of a more extensive dataset (CACK v1.0) while providing examples showcasing its application.
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Vegetation optical properties have a direct impact on canopy absorption and scattering and are thus needed for modeling surface fluxes. Although plant functional type (PFT) classification varies between different land surface models (LSMs), their optical properties must be specified. The aim of this study is to revisit the “time-invariant optical properties table” of the Simple Biosphere (SiB) model (later referred to as the “SiB table”) presented 30 years ago by Dorman and Sellers (1989), which has since been adopted by many LSMs. This revisit was needed as many of the data underlying the SiB table were not formally reviewed or published or were based on older papers or on personal communications (i.e., the validity of the optical property source data cannot be inspected due to missing data sources, outdated citation practices, and varied estimation methods). As many of today's LSMs (e.g., the Community Land Model (CLM), the Jena Scheme of Atmosphere Biosphere Coupling in Hamburg (JSBACH), and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES)) either rely on the optical properties of the SiB table or lack references altogether for those they do employ, there is a clear need to assess (and confirm or correct) the appropriateness of those being used in today's LSMs. Here, we use various spectral databases to synthesize and harmonize the key optical property information of PFT classification shared by many leading LSMs. For forests, such classifications typically differentiate PFTs by broad geo-climatic zones (i.e., tropical, boreal, temperate) and phenology (i.e., deciduous vs. evergreen). For short-statured vegetation, such classifications typically differentiate between crops, grasses, and photosynthetic pathway. Using the PFT classification of the CLM (version 5) as an example, we found the optical properties of the visible band (VIS; 400–700 nm) to fall within the range of measured values. However, in the near-infrared and shortwave infrared bands (NIR and SWIR; e.g., 701–2500 nm, referred to as “NIR”) notable differences between CLM default and measured values were observed, thus suggesting that NIR optical properties are in need of an update. For example, for conifer PFTs, the measured mean needle single scattering albedo (SSA, i.e., the sum of reflectance and transmittance) estimates in NIR were 62 % and 78 % larger than the CLM default parameters, and for PFTs with flat leaves, the measured mean leaf SSA values in NIR were 20 %, 14 %, and 19 % larger than the CLM defaults. We also found that while the CLM5 PFT-dependent leaf angle values were sufficient for forested PFTs and grasses, for crop PFTs the default parameterization appeared too vertically oriented, thus warranting an update. In addition, we propose using separate bark reflectance values for conifer and deciduous PFTs and demonstrate how shoot-level clumping correction can be incorporated into LSMs to mitigate violations of turbid media assumption and Beer's law caused by the nonrandomness of finite-sized foliage elements.
Abstract
Deforestation influences surface properties such as surface roughness, resulting in changes in the surface energy balance and surface temperature. Recent studies suggest that the biogeophysical effects are dominated by changing roughness, and it remains unclear whether this can be reconciled with earlier modeling studies that highlighted the importance of a reduction of evapotranspiration in the low latitudes and a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the high latitudes. To clarify this situation, we analyze the local effects of deforestation on surface energy balance and temperature in the MPI‐ESM climate model by performing three separate experiments: switching from forest to grass all surface properties, only surface albedo, and only surface roughness. We find that the locally induced changes in surface temperature are dominated by changes in surface roughness for the annual mean, the response of the diurnal amplitude, and the seasonal response to deforestation. For these three quantities, the results of the MPI‐ESM lie within the range of observation‐based data sets. Deforestation‐induced decreases in surface roughness contribute substantially to winter cooling in the boreal regions and to decreases in evapotranspiration in the tropics. By comparing the energy balance decompositions from the three experiments, the view that roughness changes dominate the biogeophysical consequences of deforestation can be reconciled with the earlier studies highlighting the relevance of evapotranspiration.
Authors
O. Janne Kjønaas Teresa Gómez de la Bárcena Ryan Bright Mette Hanssen Gro Hylen Håvard Kauserud Tonje Ingeborg Økland Mundra Sunil Jørn-Frode Nordbakken Carlo AallAbstract
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Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation–adaption strategy with multiple benefits.
Abstract
Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface–atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MSNFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan Bright Stephanie Eisner Marianne Tronstad Lund Titta Majasalmi Gunnar Myhre Rasmus AstrupAbstract
Predicting the surface albedo of a forest of a given species composition or plant functional type is complicated by the wide range of structural attributes it may display. Accurate characterizations of forest structure are therefore essential to reducing the uncertainty of albedo predictions in forests, particularly in the presence of snow. At present, forest albedo parameterizations remain a nonnegligible source of uncertainty in climate models, and the magnitude attributable to insufficient characterization of forest structure remains unclear. Here we employ a forest classification scheme based on the assimilation of Fennoscandic (i.e., Norway, Sweden, and Finland) national forest inventory data to quantify the magnitude of the albedo prediction error attributable to poor characterizations of forest structure. For a spatial domain spanning ~611,000 km2 of boreal forest, we find a mean absolute wintertime (December–March) albedo prediction error of 0.02, corresponding to a mean absolute radiative forcing ~0.4 W/m2. Further, we evaluate the implication of excluding albedo trajectories linked to structural transitions in forests during transient simulations of anthropogenic land use/land cover change. We find that, for an intensively managed forestry region in southeastern Norway, neglecting structural transitions over the next quarter century results in a foregone (undetected) radiatively equivalent impact of ~178 Mt‐CO2‐eq. year−1 on average during this period—a magnitude that is roughly comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of a country such as The Netherlands. Our results affirm the importance of improving the characterization of forest structure when simulating surface albedo and associated climate effects.
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Jonathan Rizzi Clara Antón Fernández Paulo Jorge de Almeida Borges Ryan Bright Rasmus AstrupAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan Bright Stephanie Eisner Titta Majasalmi Marianne Tronstad Lund Gunnar Myhre Rasmus AstrupAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Lise Dalsgaard Aaron Smith Ryan Bright Gunnhild Søgaard Gry Alfredsen Signe Kynding Borgen Johannes BreidenbachAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan Bright Edouard Davin Thomas O'Halloran Julia Pongratz Kaiguang Zhao Alessandro CescattiAbstract
Following a land cover and land management change (LCMC), local surface temperature responds to both a change in available energy and a change in the way energy is redistributed by various non-radiative mechanisms. However, the extent to which non-radiative mechanisms contribute to the local direct temperature response for different types of LCMC across the world remains uncertain. Here, we combine extensive records of remote sensing and in situ observation to show that non-radiative mechanisms dominate the local response in most regions for eight of nine common LCMC perturbations. We find that forest cover gains lead to an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, northern Europe, and Siberia—reinforcing the attractiveness of re-/afforestation as a local mitigation and adaptation measure in these regions. Our results affirm the importance of accounting for non-radiative mechanisms when evaluating local land-based mitigation or adaptation policies.
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«This is a perspective for the article 2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 095010”
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan Bright Edouard Davin Thomas O'Halloran Julia Pongratz Kaiguang Zhao Alessandro CescattiAbstract
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Tuva Grytli Geoffrey Guest Carine Lausselet Francesco Cherubini Ryan Bright Per Kr. Rørstad Helmer Belbo Rasmus Astrup Øyvind Skreiberg Morten Seljeskog Franziska Goile Anders Hammer StrømmanAbstract
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Ryan BrightAbstract
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Ryan Bright Clara Antón Fernández Rasmus Astrup Francesco Cherubini Maria Malene Kvalevåg Anders Hammer StrømmanAbstract
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Ryan Bright Francesco Cherubini Rasmus Astrup Clara Antón Fernández Anders Hammer Strømman Maria Malene KvalevågAbstract
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Ryan Bright Rasmus Astrup Anders Hammer Strømman Clara Antón Fernández Maria Malene Kvalevåg Francesco CherubiniAbstract
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An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with historical meteorological and stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway’s most productive logging region is used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species, and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential-modifier approach. This result in models with statistically significant parameters (p < 0.05) that explain a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring a single canopy modifier predictor coupled with either monthly or annual mean air temperature as a predictor of a stand’s potential albedo. Models based on annual mean temperature predict annual albedo with errors (RMSE) in the range of 0.025–0.027, while models based on monthly mean temperature predict monthly albedo with errors ranging between of 0.057–0.065 depending on the dominant tree species. While both models have the potential to be transferable to other boreal regions with similar forest management regimes, further validation efforts are required. As active management of boreal forests is increasingly seen as a means to mitigate climate change, the presented models can be used with routine forest inventory and meteorological data to predict albedo evolution in managed forests throughout the region, which, together with carbon cycle modeling, can lead to more holistic climate impact assessments of alternative forest harvest scenarios and forest product systems.
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Ryan Bright Francesco Cherubini Rasmus Astrup Neil Bird Annette L. Cowie Mark J. Ducey Gregg Marland Kim Pingoud Ilkka Savolainen Anders Hammer StrømmanAbstract
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