BOLD LEAP

The evaluation will examine BOLD-supported activities relevant to seed multiplication and delivery, assess the progress and results achieved, identify the main factors that have enabled or constrained implementation, and draw lessons for future investments. It will assess the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of the interventions. Earlier work on participatory varietal selection, on-farm testing and farmer preferences will be used where it helps explain decisions, expected demand and progress along the post-release pathway.

The evaluation will address the following question: To what extent have the interventions implemented to date contributed to a functioning seed multiplication and delivery mechanism, and how have their choice, timing and sequencing affected progress towards making seed available to farmers at the right time, place, quantity and price? Component 1 will evaluate the interventions using project documents, publications, monitoring information, administrative records and consultations with breeders, seed producers, project partners and other relevant stakeholders. It will assess stakeholder roles and contributions, activities supporting seed production, certification, multiplication, promotion and delivery, results achieved, and the main implementation challenges, gaps and lessons. The evidence will be synthesized into a visual adoption pathway and causal loop diagram to show how interventions, actors and seed-system conditions influence one another, explain why progress may be reinforced or constrained across the pathway, identify lock-ins and leverage points, and formulate priority hypotheses for testing.

Component 2 will test selected hypotheses using appropriate empirical methods. Depending on the Component 1 findings, this may include analysis of seed-production, certification and distribution data, interviews with seed-system actors, and a targeted farmer survey using either a discrete choice experiment or an experimental auction. The methods will be selected according to priority hypotheses, data availability, the availability of sufficient Jawahir seed or grain where relevant, and field feasibility. Findings will inform a variety-level Theory of Change and recommendations for the sequencing and targeting of BOLD Phase 3 investments.